Friday, May 31, 2013

20 Resims: #13 - Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars



I still can’t decide if playing in the Baker Bowl (300 HR Park Factor) was a good thing or bad.  On the positive side, the Rusty Kuntz All Stars scored runs in bunches, drilling 313 home runs and leading all of ATB in slugging and ISO.  Lists are fun:

45 HR – Reggie Jackson
41 HR – Roger Maris
43 HR – Willie Stargell
40 HR – Carlos Pena
36 HR – Joe DiMaggio
28 HR – Ken Caminiti
25 HR – Bobby Grich
21 HR – Chris Hoiles 

That’s a lot of power.  The Baker Bowl also suppresses singles by about 10% which means fewer base runners to score on all those home runs.  The team's OBP was just .301 and four every day players recorded OBP’s well under .300.

Of course all those home runs can devastate a pitching staff too.  Here’s the 500 resim ERA and 20 Resim ERA for key starting pitchers, side by side.

3.27 vs 4.38 – Walter Johnson
3.79 vs 4.89 – Cy Young
3.90 vs 4.79 – Tex Hughson
3.77 vs 4.48 – Ron Guidry

The bullpen was much the same:

2.63 vs 3.02 – Joe Nathan
2.57 vs 3.50 – JJ Putz
3.38 vs 4.19 – Bryan Harvey
3.12 vs 4.14 – Derek Lilliquist

They sure were fun to watch though.  It would be interesting to see how this team would have fared with a better defense to aid the pitching staff – only two regulars should be considered above average defenders.  Or perhaps swapping one of the power hitters for a high OBP guy like Billy Hamilton (Rd 4).

A final fun stat to leave with – the All Stars with 3rd in scoring, yet no player averaged 100 or more RBI.  However, five regulars did average between 87 and 98, now that is a balanced lineup

800 OPS Batters: 
.851 – Joe DiMaggio
.827 – Willie Stargell

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
3.02 – Joe Nathan

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 18 – Roger Maris.  Hey, had had crazy holes in his swing but he did drill 41 home runs and drive in 87

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Tex Hughson (4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)


We’re halfway through, here is how the divisions are looking.  It’s safe to say the AL West and NL Central were the worst divisions in ATB, with just 1 team in each ranking in the upper half of the league.


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears
14) 81 wins, Niagara Frontier Blackbirds
13) 81 wins, Rusty Kuntz Traveling All Stars

Thursday, May 30, 2013

20 Resims: #14 - Niagara Frontier Blackbirds



Niagara Frontier gets my vote for most surprising result in the resims.  During the regular season the Blackbirds were tragically awful, winning just 63 with a -142 run differential.  Quite unfortunately, they were as bad as they looked.

The resims revealed a completely different team.  Niagara never came close to winning 63 again, the lowest win total in the resims was 72 and they averaged 81, peaking at 94.  Playing in the same division as Spanish Harlem they rarely had on opportunity to win the division, but they did make the playoffs 6 times.

Without any specific stars, Niagara was simply a balanced team with few gaping holes in their lineup or rotation.  All four members of the rotation sported ERA’s between 3.94 and 4.32 while their bullpen, anchored by Tim Burke (See below), was just about average too.  Joe Berry pitched 100 innings per season with a 1.20 WHIP with Jim Poole successfully retiring lefties to the tune of a 3.37 ERA. The rest compiled slightly worse than average ERA’s.

Their lineup was centered around second basemen Nap Lajoie (.306 / .342 / 464, 53 2B, 14 HR) but several other players filled roles rather well.  First Basemen Tommy Tucker had an above average OBP (.358) with Duke Snider (23 HR), Josh Gibson (29 HR), and Mel Ott  (25 HR) providing power behind him.

The team certainly needed to get on base more (.310 team OBP) but this was a rather good rookie draft for owner Greg M.

800 OPS Batters: 
.806 – Nap Lajoie

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.94 – Bill Swift

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.66 – Tim Burke

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 16 - Steve Evans (.269 / .318 / .440 with 29 doubles in part time play)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Catfish Hunter (acquired via trade, but just 4 IP per season)


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears
14) 81 wins, Niagara Frontier Blackbirds

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

All Time Manager Rankings

Here is the worksheet

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/All Time Managers Through ATB XV.xlsx

1) 651 Pts - Lou Poulas (0 Chg)
2) 638 Pts - Justin Petronzi (0 Chg)
3) 626 Pts - Mike Smitko (0 Chg)
4) 602 Pts - Steve Chippendale (0 Chg)
5) 579 Pts - Sean Seeley (0 Chg)
6) 575 Pts - Jason Bernarndon (1 Chg)
7) 565 Pts - Brad Peterson (-1 Chg)
8) 543 Pts - Johnny Kondovski (1 Chg)
9) 540 Pts - Elliot Goldbetter (4 Chg)
10) 538 Pts - Joe Terry (1 Chg)
11) 531 Pts - TJ Olszewski (-1 Chg)
12) 520 Pts - Justin Burnson (-4 Chg)
13) 518 Pts - Jeff Burns (-1 Chg)
14) 512 Pts - Mike Thanasides & Zach Bernstein (0 Chg)
15) 500 Pts - Matt Brody (3 Chg)
16) 494 Pts - Jay Seeley (-1 Chg)
17) 492 Pts - Shotgun Spratling (-1 Chg)
18) 490 Pts - David Kuenn (18 Chg)
19) 489 Pts - Ivar Anderson (2 Chg)
20) 483 Pts - Brian Barnes (2 Chg)
21) 483 Pts - Joe Poulas (-4 Chg)
22) 478 Pts - Leane Sarubbi (-2 Chg)
23) 441 Pts - Michael Rippe (-4 Chg)
24) 434 Pts - Kevin Crowley (1 Chg)
25) 432 Pts - Jay Hattem (2 Chg)
26) 408 Pts - Joe Valenzano (NA Chg)
27) 404 Pts - Steve Gray / Tommy Bligh (-4 Chg)
28) 398 Pts - Matt Hinzpeter (-4 Chg)
29) 382 Pts - Gary Gambino (12 Chg)
30) 376 Pts - Ben Matsil (-4 Chg)
31) 363 Pts - Allen Cherulnik  (-1 Chg)
32) 357 Pts - Devon Eckhart (-4 Chg)
33) 357 Pts - Andy Matsil (-4 Chg)
34) 326 Pts - Adam Bloomquist (-3 Chg)
35) 306 Pts - Scott Carter (-3 Chg)
36) 297 Pts - Mike Green (-3 Chg)
37) 281 Pts - Mike Murphy (NA Chg)
38) 275 Pts - Bruce Nalepka (-4 Chg)
39) 256 Pts - Larry Caggiano (-4 Chg)
40) 235 Pts - Jim Nugent (-3 Chg)
41) 235 Pts - Richard Madachik (-3 Chg)
42) 231 Pts - Mike Wishnick (-3 Chg)
43) 231 Pts - Scott Salley (-3 Chg)
44) 225 Pts - Dennis Slinger (-2 Chg)
45) 225 Pts - Ted Knorr (NA Chg)
46) 216 Pts - Bob Lessard (-3 Chg)
47) 213 Pts - Paul Nebenfuer (-3 Chg)
48) 210 Pts - Greg Stillwagon (-3 Chg)
49) 207 Pts - Jason Schwartz (-2 Chg)
50) 198 Pts - John Wolford (-2 Chg)
51) 194 Pts - Chris Kelly (-2 Chg)
52) 194 Pts - Greg Murphy (NA Chg)
53) 188 Pts - Ron Aukamp (-3 Chg)
54) 188 Pts - Adam Luther (-3 Chg)
55) 185 Pts - Lee Wykes (-3 Chg)
56) 185 Pts - Bill Nyman (NA Chg)
57) 173 Pts - Paul Taschereau Jr (-4 Chg)
58) 167 Pts - Neil Book (-4 Chg)
59) 164 Pts - Mario Iafrate & Russ Palmer (-4 Chg)

20 Resims: #15 - North Valley Bears



North Valley is another good team that in any given season had a legitimate chance at making the playoffs.  It’s apparent than ATB XV was a league of parity and we’ll soon see that half the league ended up between 77 and 85 wins and two-thirds of the league had win total’s between 70 and 90.

The question of the day is not so much about the Bears, and instead about negro leaguer Willie Wells.  After a stellar 500 resims (.271 / .351 / .490) Wells was grabbed by TJ at #6 overall, only to bust, batting .232 / .309 / .388 in the regular season.  Turns is TJ was mostly vindicated.  Wells may not be worth a Top-10 pick, but in the resims the great fielding shortstop batted .258 / .333 / .463 in  a park that suppresses home runs and doubles, very good numbers and more than acceptable for a 1st rounder.

Wells had some help.  Ken Williams, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Mize, Ryan Howard, and Vlad Guerrero combined to hit 160 home runs and Pete Browning swiped 80 bases a year.

The staff averaged a 3.97 team ERA, solid numbers that put them almost exactly at league median.  Harry Brecheen was a legitimate ace (15-11, 3.63) and the rotation as a whole averaged a 4.18 ERA.  Their bullpen could have used a top flight reliever, but TJ chose to wait on draft day, selecting his first reliever in round 10, and his second in round 14.  This results were predictable – no one with a 3.25 or better ERA.

TJ’s bears made the playoffs 9 times and in 7 of those instances won the division.  With 1 or 2 more top end players this team easily could be ranked in the top half of the league.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.63 – Harry Brecheen

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None, though Keith Foulke (3.27) and Jim Brewer (3.34) were close

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 13 – Ryan Howard (.720 OPS, 36 HR, 89 RBI)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 2 – Roger Clemens (4.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).  Not terrible numbers, but you need more from a 2nd rounder who is to be your ace


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits
15) 79 wins, North Valley Bears

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Spanish Harlem Wins World Series!



Congratulations Justin P on your 3rd World Series Title!

Series MVP:  The Beaters Pen, wish lasted 17 innings without giving up a single run.  Pat Jarvis led the way with 8.2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, and 2 K's.

20 Resims: #16 - Otherton Fishbiscuits


What a mighty blow for Brian B.

Just a few weeks ago Brian was in the LDS having won 88 regular season games and gaining the National League Wild Card birth.  Today we find his team was actually akin to a 79 win club and therefore receives just the 16th place ranking in the resims.  The Biscuits made the playoffs a quarter of the time and won the division title in Sim 4 but on average mustered just a negative-9 run differential.

Sim 4 was a magical season though, and the 16th ranking may just be worth it.  Brian drafted a defense and pitching minded squad and placed them in the Bee Hive. Heading into the season the all time record was 545 runs against and Otherton came close to breaking it with 565 runs against.  Turns out this was a fluke, in the resims they averaged 532 runs scored and broke the record 12 times!

Season 4 was the pinnacle of great pitching.  The team allowed just 482 runs and I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves:


It literally does not get ANY better than that. The lineup performed better as well and Otherton won the division with 98 wins.

On average though, unfortunately for Brian his 1st ranked pitching staff was entirely offset by his 24th ranked lineup.  Only Bill Terry cracked a .700 OPS (barely) and 5 regulars were at .603 or worse.  Jon Jay batted .219 / .278 / .239.  I believe an all pitching team can win, but to do so the offense needs to be almost entirely OBP driven.

800 OPS Batters: 
None, not even close, thank you Bee Hive

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
2.13 – Pedro Martinez
3.31 – Bill Bernhard
3.39 – Juan Marichal
3.70 – Danny Darwin
Brian used a 4 man rotation so that’s all of em

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.09 – Dennis Eckersley
2.46 – Bill Henry
2.88 – Dick Hall
3.13 – Ray Narleski

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 24 – Ferdie Schupp (3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 9 – Ezra Sutton (.250 / .291 / .302, .593 OPS).  He was actually acquired via trade, but this line is so bad for a Rd 1-10 player I had to post it.  Amazingly, Sutton did well in the regular season (.313 / .359 / .382) and NLDS.


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels
16) 79 wins, Otherton Fishbiscuits

Sunday, May 26, 2013

20 Resims: #17 - Rochester Beau Brummels



Now we are getting somewhere.  

Averaging 78 wins, including eight above .500 seasons and six playoff appearances, Leanne constructed a quality team that competed late in the season for all but three sims.  By far, Fred Dunlap was the team’s best player, batting .335 / .401 / .524 with 46 doubles, 20 home runs, and 113 RBI.  Not bad for a defensive minded second basemen!  Despite a team .303 OBP the Beau Brummells were 11th in scoring, and were a bit of an anomaly relying on batting average (7th best).  They also hit for power – 7 players hit 20 or more doubles and 7 reached double digit home runs.

Rochester’s weak spot was the pitching staff.  This isn’t to say it was awful; rather, they had no top end players in the rotation and only one in the bullpen.  Christy Mathewson, Hal Newhouser, and Pete Alexander were all around league average starters and Juan Guzman and Ben Sheets struggled, but weren’t disasters.  

The pen was a bit worse off.  Sure Gossage was stellar (see below) but every other reliever was below average, though not by much outside of Bob Caruthers (5.14 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).

Putting it all together it worked almost as much as it failed.  Eleven times the team compiled a run differential within 25 runs of net-zero and this team was our first to win a division title, doing so three times.  

800 OPS Batters: 
.925 OPS – Fred Dunlap

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.91 – Goose Gossage

Best Value Draft Pick
No great value to be found, I actually think Dunlap (.335 / .401 / .524) at 11th overall was a steal though

Bust Draft Pick

Again, not standouts, but Cap Anson in the 8th round received only 287 AB


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids
17) 78 wins, Rochester Beau Brummels

Saturday, May 25, 2013

20 Resims: #18 - Planet 10 Red Lectroids


I am not quite sure what to make of this team.  An offense led by Ty Cobb, Albert Pujols, Rickey Henderson, Ron Santo, and to a certain extent Will Clark sounds acceptable.  But playing in strong hitters park, the Red Lectroids were just 20th in the league in scoring.  Cobb was great, perhaps his best showing ever at .318 / .364 / .486 but almost everyone one else outside of Rickey Henderson struggled.

Albert Pujols was a bust (see below), but it was completely avoidable.  Here were the 79 resim, 500 resim, and ATB Career lines for two of the Pujols years available.

2008 – 79 R – .284 / .355 / .426, .781 OPS
2006 – 79 R – .259 / .319 / .438, .757 OPS

2008 – 500R – .275 / .345 / .457, .805 OPS
2006 – 500R – .247 / .303 / .456, .759 OPS

2008 – Career – .295 / .362 / .429, .781 OPS
2006 – Career – never been used

Ivar went against the data, choosing 2006, and paid for it.

Planet 10 enjoyed nice work fromJohan Sanatana who has quietly emerged as a borderline ace starting pitcher (1.21 WHIP in both the 500 and 20 resims).  The balance of the rotation was average (Bucky Walters, Theodore Trent) to below average (Mike Scott, Earl Moore).

The Red Lectroids made the playoffs three times and were within 5 games of the playoffs three other times as well.  Season 8 must particularly painful to review – it was their best year for both Wins and Run Differential, and they missed the playoffs after tying for the division lead.

800 OPS Batters: 
.847 – Ty Cobb

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.66 – Johan Santana

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.68 – Rafael Betancourt
3.20 – Willie Hernandez

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 15 - Will Clark (.276 / .323 / .427)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Albert Pujols (.238 / .297 / .439 in a batters park).


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole
18) 77 wins, Planet 10 Red Lectroids

Friday, May 24, 2013

20 Resims: #19 - Leesburg Snowhole



After a great 2nd half during the regular season, owner Jay H had high expectations for his Leesburg squad in the 20 resims.  Unfortunately, their 80 regular season wins was about as best as this team could do, but there are two key positives to take from this.

1) Jay H did a very good job managing the team, besting both the OD Resim Average, Balance Resim Average along with the all important standard Resim Average.  Plus, he was only 3 games off the pace for the resim max wins.  All of this speaks to getting the most out of what was drafted.
2) Jay H also drafted a very good pitching staff, with enough quality to be ranked  8th best in the league measured by runs against.  Four starters had ERA’s under 4.00 and their 5th starter narrowly missed the honor too.  Four members of the bullpen, led by John Wetteland, were above average.  He gambled on Nip Winters and it paid off, Winters is a bona fide ace.

The issue with Leesburg was in the lineup.  Scoring a paltry 625 runs per resim they were ranked 2nd to last in the league and no player, starting or coming off the bench, cracked an .800 OPS.

The Mike Trout experiment looked promising but ended up bust; their second batter taken, Goose Goslin, suffered from a .306 OBP; and in fact, 7 of their 10 regulars averaged a .276 OBP between them.  All of which added up to the 2nd worst team OBP in league at .291, only the Fishbiscuits were worse and they played in an extreme pitcher's park.

For kicks, I ran the correlation between run scoring and the three key major rate stats in our league – AVG, OBP, power measured by ISO:

73% - OBP
51% - AVG
50% - ISO

OBP is king, remember that!  Major league baseball is much the same, with OBP receiving an 83% correlation, AVG 74%, and ISO 50%.  Not sure why DMB doesn’t value batting average as high as we might expect when compared with real life.  Will have to think on that.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
3.38 – Nip Winters
3.86 – Deacon Phillippe
3.97 – Addie Joss
3.96 – Justin Verlander
And 5h starter Claude Hendrix just missed at 4.10

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.79 – John Wetteland
3.19 – Medleen (in just 20 IP per year)
With Tom Gordon (3.31) coming close too

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 19 – Ed Rile (.728 OPS, 48 doubles)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Mike Trout (.229 / .286 / .356)



20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers
20) 74 wins, Platte County Burnt Ends
19) 75 wins, Leesburg Snowhole

World Series Break

Due to the unavailability of myself, Sean, and Justin, Game 6 will be held on Tuesday, 9.30 P M

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Swartwood 3 hits, 3 RBI give Beaters 4-3 win in 11 innings

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SH5.txt


Spanish Harlem Leads 3-2

20 Resims: #20 - Platte Country Burnt Ends

Jeff’s Burnt Ends are our first team to show flashes of true high end play.  In resim # 5 they won 89 games and their max win potential ended up at 94, a ful l17 games better than the 21st ranked Detroit Tigers.  That gap is remarkable.

As we saw with the Tigers, the Burnt Ends were also very unlucky in the regular season, winning just 67 games while their resim Avg, OD Resim Avg, and Balanced Resim Avg were all appreciably better.  I tend to believe a more active owner could have reduced this gap, but that's a study for another day.

Their only great offensive player was Stan Musial (below) but Larry Walker (36 HR, 103 RBI), Benny Kauff (.346 OBP, .400 SLG center fielder with Vg defense), and Mickey Cochrane (.714 OPS at catcher) were all above average  at their respective positions.

Top to bottom, both the starting rotation and bullpen were slightly below average.  Among starters, only Herb Score (4.87, 1.57) could be said unworthy of a roster spot while Mark Prior (5.04 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) struggled similarly.  On the other hand, there were no above average starters in the rotation and their best relievers received the least playing time.

With a few tweaks to the roster the Burnt Ends could have competed at a much higher level.


800 OPS Batters:
.818 – Stan Musial

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.99 – Jason Isringhausen
3.01 – Tom Henke (in just 21 IP per season though)

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 26 – Tyler Clippard (1.27 WHIP, 3.89 ERA, 67 IP, 53 H)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 5 – Hank Greenberg (.207 / .275 / .414).  One day, Greenberg will slip in the draft and a lucky owner will enjoy his services in a platoon.

20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Maddux human, Siever 0-2; Gagne records another 4-out save

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SH4.txt


I went back and counted, this was Gagne's 5th (!) 4 out save of the post season.  He also pitched 2 2/3 innings against John McDonald in Game 5 of the ALDS.

Series is tied at 2's, game 5 tomorrow night at 10 PM.  Come watch!  www.anymeeting.com/alltimebaseball1


20 Resims: #21 Detroit Tigers



Compared to the Tigers 60-win regular season, this result must be considered a success for Bill N.  Detroit averaged 69 wins per season and maxed out at 83 wins in sim 3, narrowly making the playoffs, our first team to do so.

It just seems that Detroit ran into some fairly bad luck in the regular season.  Bill didn't make any lineup changes, Free Agent moves or trades in the regular season, so in essence the ATB XV season, Resim average, and OD Resim Average all use the same lineup.  It’s clear this team was much better than the 60 wins it tallied during our season

The Tigers opted to choose 1925 Rogers Hornsby as their first round pick, bucking the traditional trend in selecting 1924.  Lets see if it worked:

1924 Career -- .310 / .380 / .464
1925 ATB 15 -- .277 / .347 / .535
1925 20Resim - .266 / .329 / .504

Personally, I prefer 1924 for the OBP considerations.

Sandy Koufax was a nice surprise considering is shaky history.  During his ATB career Koufax has average a 4.49 ERA/1.47 WHIP but perhaps the new era data has been kind to him.  In ATB 15 he averaged 224 IP, 214 H, 76 BB, 210 K, 4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.  Elsewhere Trevor Hoffman and Grant Balfour were about average relievers while Armando Benitez (see below) was top notch.

With an average of 69 wins in the regular season, the Tigers rank just ahead of the Ladies who average 72 wins.  Why?  The playoffs - the final ranking isn't solely based upon average wins, it also considers playoff appearances (both division titles and wild card) and Run Differential.

800 OPS Batters: 
0.820 – Rogers Hornsby

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
2.93 – Armando Benitez

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 22 – Grant Balfour (3.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 57 IP)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 2 – Hugh Duffy (.281 / .319 / .439, .757 OPS).  Decent numbers, but not enough for a second rounder



20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 72 wins, Lancaster Pretty Ladies
21) 69 wins, Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Haddix brilliant in 3-1 win; Beaters lose Burkett for games 4 & 5

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SH3.txt


20 Resims: #22, Lancaster Pretty Ladies


This result is one of the biggest surprises of the resims.  Sure, with  only 73 regular season wins the Ladies may have been candidates to score low in the resims, but I would have bet decent money this was an 80 win team.  I liked Cy Seymor, Edgar Wesley, Eddie Collins, Honus Wagner, Frank Baker, and Carl Yastrzemski on draft day but they never played well for Lancaster.  The team had above average power (11th in ISO) but their on-base average was simply too low when compared with the successful teams.

Honus Wagner even had a somewhat muted line (.290 / .342 / .448), 14 points off his career average OPS.

Taking a step back to the draft itself, you'll recall Lancaster held off on drafting a pitcher until round 12 and this strategy didn't work for two reasons.  1) If you take 11 consecutive batters you better have a well above average offense, and 2) Ted assumed he could piece together a rotation.  Starters averaged a 4.61 ERA with Red Faber the best of them (4.31 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.

The bullpen was better, holding two above average relievers in Darren Holmes (3.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) and Buddy Groom (3.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) but unfortunately these two saw the least playing time out of any team.

Finally, like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, we need to mention Lancaster’s Max Win Potential. In resim 12 they scored 750 runs and in resim 4 they allowed just 680.  That[s a very good run differential of +70 and would have likely led to a 91 win team.  From this we can surmise what Ted envisioned with his draft strategy.

800 OPS Batters: 
None

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 25 – Mike Donlin (.286 / .333 / .391, 25 2B in 496 AB)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 3 – Frank Baker (.248 / .287 / .401 with 72 R and 58 RBI)



20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox
22) 

Monday, May 20, 2013

Tudor no-no lasts through 7; Charelston injured for 5 in 4-1 win

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SH2.txt


Win at all costs?

Not sure Owner Justin P agrees with that adage.  Star slugger and centerfielder Oscar Charleston went down with an injury tonight and will not return until game 6.  Letting two hits drop in front of him in the 8th, his replacement Ed Swartwood arguably cost start John Tudor a shot at a no-hitter tonight.

Elsewhere star ace Jesse Tannehill remains injured and will not return until game 5.

Game 3 heads to Sparta where Harvey Haddix (11-4, 3.92) will face Frank Sullivan (13-10, 3.47).

A Trip Down Memory Lane - the ATB II Draft

I stumbled across a file that contains the first every ATB draft using Diamond Mind software.  It was a 14 team, 40 round draft.  It seems we had reserves.

Babe Ruth was still #1 but Greg Maddux was drafted 2nd overall, and I guess considered better than Pedro Martinez who dreopped down to 28th overall.  Other first round headscratchers include Luis Tiant, and a trio of Tony 3 phenom's that didn't translate to DMB - Dutch Leonard, Mordecai Brown, and Carl Lundgren.

Random other atrocious picks
- 2nd Rd Nomar G.
- Gehrig dropping to 32nd overall with Hornsby right behind him
- Barry Bonds in the 5th?  Awful, but ATB II used 2000 seasonal data, before his monster seasons
- John McGraw in the 6th
- and Rickey Henderson in the 22nd

Some positional oversights
- Arod before Honus Wagner
- Bruce Sutter as the #1 reliever
- Jack CLements as the #1 catcher, 10th overall.
- George Davis at 3rd before George Brett
- Jackie Robinson as the best 2B

Oh, and I would be resims in neglecting the best part of ATB II - the team name of "Devon Sucks Goat".

We've come a long way!  Thanks!

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Maddux, Gagne pick up where they left off, Sparta wins 4-2

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SH1.txt


Sparta Leads 1-0

World Series Begins Tonight

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/World_Series_ATBXV.htm

Broadcast Schedule
Sunday - 9.30 PM
Monday - 9.30 PM
Tuesday - 10.00 PM
Wednesday - 9.30 PM
Thursday - 10.00 PM
Friday - TBD
Saturday - TBD

To watch, simply log in here at the start time:  www.anymeeting.com/alltimebaseball1

20 Resims: #23 - Colorado Green Sox


There are few harder working owners in the game and this low ranking must come as a huge disappointment for Gary G.  After a lackluster 71 wins in the regular season, the Green Sox fared even worse in the resims, dropping down to 66 wins.  More jarring, their “Opening Day Resim” was an improvement on both their regular season and resim win totals.  Put plainly, if Gary did nothing all season long – no trades, no FA moves, no lineup changes – his opening day lineup would have yielded 8 more wins.

Playing in Coors Field, it should come as no surprise this team scored runs, ending with the 6th best run total in the game.  Babe Ruth, Jason Giambi, and Jim Gentile were their three best, but Bullet Joe Rogan (29 HR, 96 RBI) and to a certain extent John Ward (93 SB) were good too.  Perhaps Ralph Kiner (.776 OPS in 44 AB per sim) should have played over Ken Griffey Sr (.663 OPS as a starter).

Pitching was a mess, with the staff in its entirety coughing up almost 900 runs.  As evidenced by the fact the normally great Al Orth barely cracking a 4.50 ERA, Coors Field was the main factor (ha) in the poor results.  This doesn't exonerate certain choices though -  Joe Magrane (5.88) and George Earnshaw (5.75) are questionable in any stadium

800 OPS Batters: 
1.091 OPS – Babe Ruth
0.872 OPS – Jason Giambi
0.829 OPS – Jim Gentile

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Best Value Draft Pick
No standouts, but you could do a lot worse than a .679 OPS catcher in Round 25 – Manny Sanguillen

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 4 – Harvey Haddix.  The starting pitcher was dealt to the Beaters for Paul Wilson who tossed 45 innings to the tune of a 4.43 ERA.


20 Resim Results
24) 64 wins, Downsouth Brews
23) 66 wins, Colorado Green Sox

Saturday, May 18, 2013

20 Resims: #24 - Downsouth Brews



For the second year in a row Allen C’s Downsouth Brews resim as the worst team in ATB.  Pitching was their undoing as the team gave up 875 runs (2nd worst) and were outscored by an average of 155 (worst).

The Brews:
- Won 64 games in the regular season
- Averaged 64 wins in the resims
- Won 64 games in the “Opening Day” resim

At least they were consistent?

No starting pitcher had an ERA under 4.75 and only one reliever had an ERA under 4.00 (Tom Niedenfuer, 3.89).  Their first round pick Randy Johnson was a disaster (see below) and the team never recovered.

Still, there are some positives.  This was a couple of win improvement for Downsouth over last year and their offense was above average, scoring 720 runs, 12th in the league.  Harry Heilmann and Dan Brouthers were spitting images of each other, each within a few points of AVG, OBP and SLG for a combined line of .288 / .348 / .444.  Javy Lopez added 27 home runs and Howard Johnson 26.  3rd round pick and new Negro Leaguer George Carr was a bust (.276 OBP, though his SLG was close to .400).

The Brews maxed out with 75 wins and never came particularly close to reaching the playoffs.  If everything broke correctly, and they achieved their best Runs For and best Runs Against in the same season, the “should have won” 86 games (Max Win Potential).

800 OPS Batters: 
None, though Harry Heilmann and Dan Brouthers were close

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
None

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
None

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 21 - Josh Hamilton (.275, .309, .419, 19 HR, 87 RBI)

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 1 – Randy Johnson (8-14, 5.46 ERA, 1.63 WHIP)


Friday, May 17, 2013

LCS Game 5: World Series Bound

Hacker solid, Edgar sends Sparta to Series with 3-1 win
Series MVP:  Greg's Gagne (4 saves, 0.00 ERA) and Maddux (2 W, 1.43 ERA)

Zimmerman 6-out save & Charleston HR advance Beaters 4-1
Series MVP: Oscar Charleston (.423 AVG, .769 SLG, 3 doubles, 2 HR)

Hat tip to Wade Boggs who seemed to get every important, game changing hit for Spanish Harlem.  He batted .350 / .381 / .700 with 2 HR.

The 20 Resims Begin

Our favorite time of year!

Now that my Red Eagles, batter and bruised by a vicious and malicious Hoplite squad, are on the brink of elimination I am comfortable starting the 20 resim process.  The resims are 100% complete and I am in the midst of compiling the data.

I thought I would spend a minute explaining the reporting categories we'll use this season.


The upper section identifies the team and owner, along with two important categories:
  • Activity Level - Gives us a sense of how active each owner was.  On average, owners submitted 8.6 lineups during the regular season.  This field will tell us how much above or below average the owner was.
  • Raw Park OPS - Created by Justin B last year, this take all the raw park factors and compiles an "expected OPS" for an average team.  This simply helps us see how much of a batter's or pitcher's park the team played in.
The Win/Loss section summarizes the records of each team across the 20 resims:
  • Actual - Wins in the regular season
  • Resim Min, Average, Max - hopefully self explanatory
  • OD Resim Average - In addition to the normal 20 resims, this year I ran additional resims to help better gauge the win possibilities for each team.  OD stands for Opening Day, and is simply a batch of 20 resims using each team's opening day lineup.  It is meant to measure the results of the team had they made no Free Agent Moves or Trades in the regular season.  Basically, it measures draft success only.
  • Bal Resim Average - Another batch of 20 resims, this one measures results in neutral parks and a balanced schedule.  It is always interesting to see what would have happened if there were an even number of games between all teams.
Batting and Pitching is self explanatory, but Playoffs may warrant an explanation.  It reports the # of times each team won a Wild Card birth or Division title, and sums it up in the Playoff Odds, or rather, the percentage of times each team made the playoffs.  For purposes of reporting, if two teams tied for a playoff birth, the team with the better Run Differential received credit.  One game playoffs and post-seasons were not run.

Hopefully you are looking forward to the results as much as I am.  I'll start posting the team write-ups in descending order this weekend.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

LCS Game 4s

Charleston doubles & homers; Beaters win game but lose ace
(Not sure why DMB hates good players this offseason)

Ford issues 8th inning bases loaded walks 3 times, loses 4-1
(I was screaming at the AI for this one, tough to watch)

The Beaters and Hoplites are winning their respective series 3-1

AL MVP Winner

1) 52 Points-Stearns, Turkey (MRE) - (8, 3, 3 / 14 ballots)
3) 48 Points-Williams, Ted (TWW) --- (6, 5, 3 / 14 ballots)
2) 32 Points-Bonds, Barry (JMF) ---- (3, 4, 5 / 12 ballots)
4) 12 Points-Ruth, Babe (CGS) ------ (0, 3, 3 / 6 ballots)
5) 4 Points-Johnson, Heavy (BF) ---- (0, 1, 1 / 2 ballots)
8) 3 Points-McGraw, John (MRE) ----- (0, 1, 0 / 1 ballots)
6) 1 Points-McGwire, Mark (JMF) ---- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)
7) 1 Points-Connor, Roger (BF) ----- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)

I don't have a way to confirm this, but I believe the ATB 15 MVP race was the closest race for an MVP in our league history.  Turkey Stearnes narrowly defeated Ted Williams by 2 first place votes.  Both were left off 3 ballots and had competition from Babe Ruth, named on 12 ballots, as well.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Kids, Make Sure Your Home Run Showboat is on a Home Run Play




LCS Game 3's

Red Eagles lose Stearnes, Delahanty, and game, 4-1
Injuries came on back o back plays in the first!

**************  Top of the 1st inning, Red Eagles batting
 0-0  0 --- 01  McGrawJohn flied out to right (CX)
 0-0  1 --- 01  Votto grounded out to first (FX)
 0-0  2 --- 00  Stearnes doubled deep to right (X)
                Stearnes left the game with an injury
                McNair pinch running for Stearnes
 0-0  2 -2- 21  DelahantyEd was hit by a pitch (BBCH)
                DelahantyEd left the game with an injury
                Hines pinch running for DelahantyEd
 0-0  2 12- 02  Pike grounded out to third (SFX)
Turkey Stearnes was injured for this game and 2 more days
Ed Delahanty was injured for this game and 7 more days


Pedro dominant, 10 K's give Biscuits first win 3-2

Some Great Games, Come Watch!

Tonight
G3-SH @ MRE - 09:30 PM
G3-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM

Thursday
G4-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM
G4-SH @ MRE - 10:30 PM

NL MVP Winner

1) 80 Points-Charleston, Oscar (SPB) - (16, 0, 0 / 16 ballots)
1) 24 Points-Griffey Jr, Ken (BS) - (1, 6, 1 / 8 ballots)
1) 18 Points-Mantle, Mickey (HH) - (0, 5, 3 / 8 ballots)
1) 13 Points-Barnes, Ross (DCC) - (0, 3, 4 / 7 ballots)
1) 11 Points-Gehrig, Lou (BS) - (0, 2, 5 / 7 ballots)
1) 3 Points-Mays, Willie (SM) - (0, 1, 0 / 1 ballots)
1) 2 Points-Vaughan, Arky (SM) - (0, 0, 2 / 2 ballots)
1) 1 Points-Lajoie, Nap (NFB) - (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)
1) 1 Points-Browning, Pete (NVB) - (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)

Well, to each his own.  Not Charleston winning, but the fact Charleston was left off 1 ballot completely.  Hard to believe but true.  Charleston won handily nonetheless, picking up 80 of a possible 85 points.

In second was Ken Griffey Jr who hung with Charleston for most of the 1st half before slowing down.  A third center fielder, Mickey Mantle, takes third as well.

LCS Game 2's

Another late night, another skipped writeup.

Pinata Beaters win 6-4, lead 2-0
http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_OFB2.txt

Red Eagles win 7-5, Series tied 1-1
http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/MRE_SH2.txt

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

AL Cy Young Award Winner

1) 85 Points-Maddux, Greg (SH) ---- (17, 0, 0 / 17 ballots)
2) 29 Points-Blanton, Cy (TWW) ---- (0, 7, 8 / 15 ballots)
3) 17 Points-Podres, Johnny (MRE) - (0, 3, 8 / 11 ballots)
4) 13 Points-Hubbell, Carl (TWW) -- (0, 4, 1 / 5 ballots)
5) 6 Points-Ryan, Red (WPM) ------- (0, 2, 0 / 2 ballots)
6) 3 Points-Jenks, Bobby (SH) ----- (0, 1, 0 / 1 ballots)

Maddux was the clear favorite coming in, and ATB owners didn't disappoint  naming the Hoplite starter on all 17 ballots.  The real race was for 2nd place and owners here too were clear, with Cy Blanton garnering the same number of 2nd place votes as the next two best candidates.

Relievers got there fair share in the AL too, with both Red Ryan and Bobby Jenks receiving 2nd place votes.

Monday, May 13, 2013

ALCS and NLCS Games 1 Complete

15 inning affairs take a while, especially when are managed by owners.  Epic game, great stuff.  Here are the box scores sans writeups.

Hoplites 3, Red Eagles 2
http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/MRE_SH1.txt

Beaters 4, Biscuits 3 (15 innings)
http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_OFB1.txt

LCS Broadcast Games Schedule

Broadcast Games
M-G1-SH @ MRE - 09:30 PM
M-G1-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM

T-G2-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM
T-G2-SH @ MRE - 10:30 PM

W-G3-SH @ MRE - 09:30 PM
W-G3-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM

T-G4-OFB @ SPB- 10:00 PM
T-G4-SH @ MRE - 10:30 PM


Games 5, 6, 7 TBD

NL Cy Young Award Winner

1) 85 Points-Martinez,Pedro (OFB) - (17, 0, 0 / 17 ballots)
2) 30 Points-Winters,Nip (LS) ----- (0, 9, 3 / 12 ballots)
3) 15 Points-King,Silver (BS) ----- (0, 3, 6 / 9 ballots)
4) 10 Points-Jones,Randy (DCC) ---- (0, 3, 1 / 4 ballots)
5) 6 Points-Haren,Danny (BS) ------ (0, 1, 3 / 4 ballots)
6) 4 Points-Bernhard,Bill (OFB) --- (0, 1, 1 / 2 ballots)
7) 1 Points-Jenkins,Fergie (SM) --- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)
8) 1 Points-Sutter,Bruce (BS) ----- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)
9) 1 Points-Marichal,Juan (OFB) --- (0, 0, 1 / 1 ballots)


Pedro Martinez wins in a clean sweep, obtaining 17 of 17 possible 1st place ballots.  Biscuit teammates Bill Bernhard and Juan Marichal reinforce just how good Otherton's rotation (or ballpark?) is.

Negro leaguer Nip Winters handily bests Silver King and Randy Jones for 2nd place.

Interestingly, Bruce Sutter, the NL Reliever of the year, picked up a third place vote for Cy Young as well.

League Championship Series Page Updated with OFB-SPB Matchup

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/lcs_series_ATBXV.htm


Sunday, May 12, 2013

Siever goes the distance; Beaters win 8-1, head to LCS

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SM7.txt


In the end it was an 8-1 blowout with Ed Siever dominating Miner batters for the win, but watching the game live it was a close game until the 7th.  There, doubles by Wade Boggs, Oscar Charleston, and King Kelly broke the game open, giving Spanish Harlem an 8-1 lead they would not relinquish.  Boggs had a great game, homering in the second, and going 3-3 on the night, with 3 RBI and 3 Runs Scored.

Miner starter Siever was on his game, scattering 5 hits and striking out 5 on the night.  He completed the game efficiently with just 106 pitches.

Starters
Ed Siever (SPB) - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Fergie Jenkins (SM) - 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Pedro on short rest outduels Haren 7-3, Biscuits advance

http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/OFB_BS7.txt


Five different Biscuits had multi-hit games generating more than enough offense for Pedro Martinez, who cruised to a 7-3 Otherton win.  Ezra Sutton had three hits, while Bill Terry, Paul Waner, and Ernie Banks each drove in 2 base runners.  Banks added a long home run in the 5th, the only crooked inning for Otherton all night.  They scored runs in 5 consecutive innings off of Dan Haren and Rollie Fingers.

Martinez was great up until the 9th inning when he tired, letting 3 runs in.  Ferdie Schupp and Dennis Eckersley finished the game without much trouble.

Starters
Pedro Martinez (OFB) - 8.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Danny Haren (BS) - 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Friday, May 10, 2013

Bernhard, Pen force Game 7; Biscuits Win 3-1





There will be a game 7.  Bill Bernhard and the Fishbiscuit bullpen were masterful, holding Brighton to 4 hits in a 3-1 victory.

Otherton received runs on back to back singles from Bill Terry and Ken Singleton in the third, and squeaked another run through in the 5th.  It wasn't much, bur more than enough for Bernhard to work with.

Game 7 is tomorrow night.  Starters have not officially been announced, but it's safe to say it will be Pedro Martinez (12-12, 2.60) vs Danny Haren (19-7, 3.31).

Starters
Bill Bernhard (OFB) - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Silver King (BS) - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Chipper Jones Double in 13 Advances Sparta to ALCS





It took back to back 13 inning games to decide the series, but in the end Sparta proved to be the better team winning 2-1 and taking the series in 6 games.

It was a pitchers duel this afternoon.  Fanclub's Don Newcombe completed 9 innings giving up just 1 run on 7 hits while Kevin Brown was virtually flawless in 7 frames.

With Brown out of the game and Fanclub down 1-0 in the 9th, the visitors tied it up thanks to a Jorge Posada 1-out double.  Fanclub had a chance to take the lead when Gorman Thomas followed with a single and Hughie Jennings was plunked to load the bases, but Adrian Gonzalez grounded to the pitcher to end the inning.

Starters
Don Newcombe (JMF) - 9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Kevin Brown (SH) - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Three Homers, Timely Pitching Forces Game 7 for Miners


http://www.alltimebaseballsim.net/SPB_SM6.txt


I must admit I was hoping for this.  The Shamokin Miners forced a game 7 earlier this afternoon, defeating the Pinata Beaters 4-3.  The win means the two managers will once again face off live, managing their teams during the video broadcast introduced for the Division Series.  These games are highly entertaining; the thought of a live and human managed game 7 is thrilling.

Harvey Haddix struggled, getting bounced in the 5th after coughing up 9 hits and 3 runs.  Reggie Smith, Willie Mays, and Brady Anderson homered in the win.

The Beaters had three chances to tie in the bottom of the 9th, but their 3-4-5 hitters couldn't plate Oscar Charleston, who led off the inning with a double.

Probable starters are Jack Chesbro (15-10, 3.44) and Ed Siever (18-8, 3.21)

Starters
Eddie Cicotte (SM) - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER
Harvey Haddix (SPB) - 4.1 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Podres, Rodney Lead Red Eagles to 7-2 win, Menetheren Advances



A great big sigh of relief was heard out of Manetheren who were able to avoid a precarious Game 7 after jumping out to a 3-0 series lead.  Joe Sewell doubled and drove in three, helping the stagnant Manetheren offense scored 7 runs on just 8 hit.


Picking up the win, Johnny Podres was effective and Fernarndo Rodney earned the save after a great 3 innings of work.

Starters
Curt Schilling (TWW) - 4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Johnny Podres (MRE) - 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K