Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Preparing for ATB XIII - Need Your Help

We last chatted at the end of August and I have had almost my normal amount of time to decompress. Ever since we broke in the new year, my mind has turned more and more towards the next ATB season.

Before taking a break this past fall, I pondered a few changes to the game. The first one is not up for discussion and I would like to tell you a bit about it. The second is up for discussion, though, if you had asked me 3 months ago I wouldn't have thought so.

The easiest 1st. Long have I yearned for 1981 Mike Schmidt, 1994 Paul O'Neill, and dozens of catchers who fell short of the minimum playing time requirements.

So, for the next ATB, I am easing the minimum plate appearance requirements in order to open up some new blood. The two new rules:

1) For teams with less than 100 games in a season, a player from that team is only eligible if he has appeared in 95% of his teams games. For teams with more than 100 games, a player is only eligible if he has appeared in 85% of his teams games.

2) Catchers need only have 370 Plate Appearances, instead of the 450 currently required.

This shouldn't release any Babe Ruth's, Mickey Mantle's, or even any Norm Cash's. However, some new player seasons sure look enticing:

1981 Mike Schmidt: .316 / .435 / .644, 31 HR, 354 AB
1875 Deacon White: .367 / .372 / .453 as a catcher
1994 Paul O'Neill: .359 / .460 / .603, 1.064 OPS
2000 Ivan Rodriguez: .347 / .375 / .667 as a catcher

The second is a potential rule change. If you still have this on your RSS reader or subscribe via email, you'll have first opportunity to weigh in. I want to Baseline the league.

I personally feel it is time we force the competitive balance issue. Lets face it, only a handful of owners have shown a recurring ability to be among the league best year over year. Unfortunately, a lot of this is due to the ability to create a formula in excel. If you can automatically compare a player against the league average of his time, you virtually guaranteed a playoff spot.

This seems a bit absurd to me.

To level the playing field, I would like to run 100 sims for the Top "X" players in a nuetral park, and publish the results for all to see.

Pros
- Level the playing field
- A more competitive league
- A more competitive draft
- Draft strategies similar to fantasy baseball

Cons
- Eliminates some the fun of scouring player lists to find the next risk to pay off
- potential to alienate the core owners have loved this for the past 13 seasons. Do we cater to new owners who may choose not to come back for the long term?
- Draft strategies similar to fantasy baseball

So, what do you think? Should I baseline the league or not. With so much new blood that has invigorated ATB I think it is the right move - lets keep the momentum.

However, my favorite aspect of ATB is combing through spreadsheets for the draft. If most feel that way, we shouldn't change a key and tantalizing aspect of our wonderful group.

Post some comments here or feel free to email me personally.

4 comments:

  1. Since there is a 94% chance I'm going to draft Paul O'Neill in the first round, I'm all for trying to level the playing field a little more.

    Just kidding. Even though (because?) I've only had two unsuccessful playoff appearances, my favorite part of the league is the weeks of preparation.

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  2. Thanks for the comments, and to those who sent private emails too.

    Perhaps the best way is to baseline existing data only. I won't re-baseline every year to see how the current crop of players stack up, so, why not baseline as of players added today.

    Also, to be clear - I would only pick the best season of each player. That is very subjective. Which ruth year is best? It's up for debate. With only one Ruth baselined, it will still be up to the owner to decide to try 1921 instead of 1920 or vice versa.

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  3. I like both ideas. It will be nice to see the new players come in and I hope some of them sim as top-10 players. Top 100 is only 5 rounds, so you're hardly eliminating draft prep, just making it easier to ensure you have a solid foundation. Seems that if you're not drafting very early, you're at a distinct disadvantage. These changes will both aid toward that issue.

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