Each Team's Odds of Winning the Tournament

I am not that adept at figuring odds but I did a little research and I believe I found a way to calculate the rough odds of each team winning the tournament.  The methodology solely uses Pythagorean Winning Percentage as the means of determining which team is best for each match-up.

For instance, the DC Chips and their .702 Wpct will face off against the Niagara Frontier Blackbirds and their .405 Wpct in round 1.  Using a Bill James method of determining the chances of one team beating another, it gives the Chips a 78% chance at winning that particular series.

If all goes according to plan, in Round 2 the Chips would face the Shamokin Miners (.561 Wpct) and their odds of winning drops to 65%.  In Round 3, again according to plan, the Chips would face the Brighton Shadows (.624 Wpct and 59% odds of winning); Round 4 would be against Bellevue Freakin Franchise (.657 Wpct and 55% chance to win); and finally they'd meet the Manetheren Red Eagles in the Championship (.648 Wpct and the Chips have a 56% chance to win that series).

Add that all up and you get a 9.1% chance of the Chips winning it all, if the team with the better winning percentage won each of the other series.  This is roughly 11-1 Odds.  We know there will be upsets and to account for that, and this is a huge leap of math faith, I lopped off 35% from the Odds, and ultimately gave the Chips 7-1 Odds to win it all.

This was repeated for every freakin' team, and here are the results.

COMISH'S ODDS AT WINNING THE OWNER APPRECIATION TOURNAMENT
7-1: (Rk 1) ATB 10 DC Chips (Steve C)
13-1: (Rk 4) ATB 11 Bellevue Freakin Franchis (Brad P)
13-1: (Rk 2) ATB 9 Manetheren Red Eagles (Lou P)
16-1: (Rk 3) ATB 12 Lusitania Death Speakers (Mike S)
16-1: (Rk 6) ATB 11 John McDonald Fanclub (Jason B)
20-1: (Rk 5) ATB 13 Gold Country Gossamers (Justin B)
21-1: (Rk 7) ATB 15 Span. Harlem Pinata Beaters (Justin P)
21-1: (Rk 8) ATB 15 Brighton Shadows (David K)
23-1: (Rk 10) ATB 9 Dyersville Black Sox (Mike T)
28-1: (Rk 9) ATB 8 Van Nest Fighting Philbens (Jeff B)
32-1: (Rk 11) ATB 12 Helena Handbasket (Joe T)
35-1: (Rk 15) ATB 11 Planet 10 (Ivar A)
37-1: (Rk 13) ATB 14 R. Kuntz Traveling All Stars (Shotgnun)
38-1: (Rk 12) ATB 13 Newark Slam Dumps (Sean)
50-1: (Rk 14) ATB 14 Otherton Fishbiscuits (Brian B)
52-1: (Rk 16) ATB 15 Shamokin Miners (Mike M)
53-1: (Rk 17) ATB 9 County Wicklow Fighting Shillelaghs (TJ O)
70-1: (Rk 18) ATB 11 Rochester Beau Brummels (Leanne S)
81-1: (Rk 21) ATB 15 Wildlings of the Wall (Joe V)
94-1: (Rk 22) ATB 9 Saginaw Slammers (Jay S)
101-1: (Rk 23) ATB 7 Mendham Maulers (Andy M)
103-1: (Rk 20) ATB 9 New York Blues (Mike R)
136-1: (Rk 19) ATB 13 Willets Point "Mechanics"
140-1: (Rk 24) ATB 15 Leesburg Snowhole (Jay H)
165-1: (Rk 25) ATB 10 Cincinnati Venus Fly Traps (Kevin C)
167-1: (Rk 26) ATB 11 I Miss Rod Beck (Johnny K)
213-1: (Rk 28) ATB 11 Cincinnati Redlegs (Greg S)
214-1: (Rk 27) ATB 10 Absurdville Madness (Matty H)
254-1: (Rk 29) ATB 15 Colorado Green Sox (Gary G)
272-1: (Rk 30) ATB 15 Lancaster Pretty Ladies (Ted K)
403-1: (Rk 32) ATB 15 Niagara Frontier Blackbirds (Greg M)
423-1: (Rk 31) ATB 15 Downsouth Brews (Allen C)

Of course, Pythagorean doesn't tell the whole story, and may not even tell three quarters of the story.  For one, these team winning percentages were based on a 162 game season and in a short 7 game series with injuries turned off, teams with a great starting pitching have an edge.

For another, life way back in ATB VII was much different than life in ATB XV.  We've learned a ton, and the owner quality is currently as best as its ever been.  A .650 winning percentage 7 years ago is probably akin to a .590 winning percentage today.

And finally, as we all have grown to love (or loathe), a sample of 1 season means alot, but not as much as most would think.  Case in point my 104 win  Red Eagles from this past season turned out to be a 94-win team over the course of 20 resims.

Let the betting begin!