Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Expectations: 1st pick 90 wins, 2nd pick 74 wins?

The chart below depicts the # of wins by draft slot for each of the past 5 years.  Unsurprisingly, when you luck into the #1 draft pick you can expect 90 wins, the highest win expectancy of any slot.  Very strangely however, if you draft 2nd you can expect just 74 wins.  This makes little sense:

The only explanation I can come up with is sample size.  Here are the top 3 picks in each of the past 5 drafts:

No comments:

Post a Comment