Friday, June 11, 2010

Diamond Mind and Run Correlation

Not sure why I hadn't thought of this before, and not that I am about to share any great revelation, but I have never run any correlation formulas to see what DMB values most in terms of scoring runs. Is batting average key? Slugging? Stolen bases?

The table on the left depicts the correlation between the stat listed and runs scored, based upon team totals for the season to date. It is not exactly a fair apples to apples comparison between stats, but interesting nonetheless.

As expected, Total Bases and OPS top the list. If you accumulate a lot doubles, triples, and homers you score runs. If you have a high OBP and SLG, you score a lot of runs.

Among the three most common rate stats - AVG, OBP, and SLG - OBP is king. Surprisingly though, given a choice between just AVG and SLG, diamond mind appears to prefer a high average to a high slugging percentage.

At the tail end of the spectrum are the individual counting stats. Extra base hits are more important than doubles, which is more important than home runs, etc. None of this comes as a surprise, but I personally didn't think the disparity between doubles and home runs was that decisive. I am no statistician, but it appears one can say that doubles correlate to runs scored more than 3.5 times than doubles.

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