Rest of Way Projections for Wild Card Contenders

Well, this was a tremendous amount of work (all fun) to basically conclude the standings we see today are the standings we'll see at the end of the season.  There are some minor fluctuations of course, but nothing out of the ordinary is expected to occur based upon strength of schedule, home/road splits, Pythagorean standings, etc.

First the chart

Please Click to Enlarge

Lets look at the Sparta Hoplites to explain what this chart shows:

• Sparta currently has 67 wins for a .511 winning percentage
• Their Pythagorean winning percentage is .525
• Weighting Pythag a bit higher (3 to 2), Sparta's effective winning percentage is .520
• They are currently 1 game back of Imre for the NL Wild Card slot

• Sparta has 31 games remaining, 21 of which are at home.  
• This is very good news for them, since to date, their home winning percentage is quite good at .617.
• The combined winning percentage of their opponents, weighted by the # if games remaining, is only .473

• Using a Bill James formula to predict the outcome of each game Sparta has remaining, I was able to determine the expected winning percentage the team will have the rest of the way.
• This includes a boost for games Sparta plays at home.
• So, this .520 Wpct team, with 21 of their remaining 31 games to be played at home where they enjoy a .617 Wpct, face off against an aggregate opponent win percentage of .473, should go 19-12 the rest of the way and end the season with 86 wins.

Unfortunately for Sparta, Imre's remaining strength of schedule is even worse, and they should go 18-11 the rest of the way and finish with 87 wins.

Over in the AL, DC should squeak out a 1 game win over Planet 10 as well.

This was run for each team within 6 games of the wild card.