Thursday, June 9, 2011

Expectations: Batters

It's been an odd year for ATB. Many owners who have enjoyed success are mired in the bottom tiers of the divisions while the opposite holds true as well. Several owners who have missed the playoffs on most previous years are currently eying the post season.

Much of this has to do with the our overall improved drafting skills. Much of it has to do with the 100 Sim Baseline exercise in the off season. Yet, perhaps the most important piece of the puzzle is sample size and/or bad luck.

Take the DC Chips for instance. Heading into ATB XIII the franchise owned the best all time winning percentage in history; this season they're under .500 and 14 games out of first place. While injuries have taken its toll on this team, their overall level of play is well below expectations.

For instance Rickey Henderson typically enjoys a .760 OPS, for DC this year it's just .580.
This file compares the current ATB XIII OPS versus the OPS the player compiled in their previous ATB history (minimum 200 current PA). DC tops the list for overall team under-performance.

In fact most teams are under-performing. Below is a list of the accumulated differences between historical OPS and current OPS:

-0.673: DC
-0.438: BBB
-0.351: KD
-0.302: ICB
-0.295: HS
-0.203 - LM
-0.188: NSD
-0.186: JMF
-0.131: BDL
-0.025: WPM

+0.008: RKA
+0.078: DB
+0.088: TG
+0.156: GCG
+0.189: HH
+0.189: OFB
+0.129: P10
+0.403 NO

Individually, Ed McKean (NO) is performing much higher than expected. His .573 OPS is .257 points different than his 'normal' OPS of .316. This is hardly interesting however, McKean is an awful player either way.

Perhaps the most intriguing is 1971 Bobby Murcer of the Gossamers. In previous seasons, Murcer has performed well batting .305 / .374 / .436. This year however, in a pitchers park no less, Murcer has outperformed all expectations batting .351 / .426 / .538.

The most disappointing player this season has to be 1973 Willie Stargell (WPM). The DH is batting .210 / .271 / .366 versus a career average of .256 / .319 / .514.

As mentioned, this file has the detail behind every player. Finally, a post like this wouldn't be complete without a few graphs.



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