Thursday, June 9, 2011

MVP Race (by Runs Created)

The Runs Created statistic is a great way to discern the major MVP candidates. It of course isn't the lone metric we should analyze, but it is a saber friendly stat that a) takes into account playing time, and b) correlates to team runs scored. Therefore, it stands to reason, players that make up the highest percentage of their teams Runs Created should at least be in the discussion for MVP.

Here's a look at the current Top 5 using this metric. (Please note ATB has always chosen to make the MVP solely a batter award).

Barry Bonds - Island Country Bivalves
RC % - 20.1%
Team Wpct: .484
Bonus: None

Over the past 30 days the Bivalves have won 16 of 25 and are slowly creeping towards contention. They are 8.5 out of the wildcard, but if they do end up making a run, Bonds would likely end up winning the MVP going away. Only two other batters in the entire Bivalve lineup have an on base percentage above .325, and Bonds comes in at .472. For the season he is batting .285 / .472 / .584 with 27 home runs. If we remove Bonds from the lineup, the Bivalves are batting a lowly batting .261 / .307 / .392

Ross Barnes - Londonderry Machine
RC% - 18.0
Team Wpct: .478
Bonus: Great Defense

Mired a few games below .500 all season, Barnes has been one of the few bright spots for Londonderry, a team many picked to win the National Division. Playing excellent defense, Barnes is batting .340 / .411 / .456. He leads qualifying second baseman in a laundry list of statistics: AVG, OBP, SLG, Hits, Doubles, and Triples while maintaining Top 5 status in R, RBI, and Stolen Bases.

Mickey Mantle - Newark Slam Dumps
RC % - 17.5%
Team Wpct: .505
Bonus: Good defense up the middle

Mantle is clearly the best player on a team in smack in the middle of the playoff picture. Four games out of the wild card as of this writing, the Dumps own the third best run differential in ATB and figure to be playing meaningful baseball through September. Mantle is having a great year batting .330 / .438 / .504 with 13 2B, 3 3B, and 14 HR. According to ATB Value, he ranks only behind Bonds for overall player value. One detriment, the voters will not ignore the fact his teammate, Frank Robinson, is on pace to drive in an incredible 160 runners.

Jimmie Foxx - Downsouth Brews
RC % - 17.3%
Team Wpct: .351
Bonus: None

If a great player has a great season on a bad team, will anybody notice? Unfortunately no. The Brews are struggling this year and at 33-61, are on pace for one of the worst seasons in ATB history. Without Foxx, would it matter if they were 25-69? Regardless, Foxx is enjoying a career type year batting .279 / .360 / .507 with 24 HR, 56 R, and 64 RBI.

Babe Ruth - Otherton Fishbiscuits*
RC % - 16.8%
Team Wpct: .548
Bonus: None

Ruth is a better version of Bonds, at least in terms of how most voters will think. Much like Bonds, his team has been playing great lately (15-8) and has mad a push for the playoffs. Unlike Bonds' team however, the Fishbiscuits would be playoff bound if the season ended today. And Ruth has played a critical role. Batting .256 / .411 / .575, he leads his team in OBP, SLG, doubles (17), triples (2), Home Runs (30), Runs (74), RBI (70), Runs Created (82.5), RC/27 (8.0), Extra Base Hits (49), and OPS (.986).

* Mark McGwire and John McGraw have better percentages, but McGwire is an an awful team and McGraw already has Barnes representing his team.


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