Stock Up, Stock Down

Just as in fantasy baseball, year over year trends develop in where players are drafted.  In fantasy, this is mostly due to the success or failure due to the players aging curve, here in ATB, it is due rule changes, the introduction of new talent to the player pool, and smarter owners.  The reasons do not matter so much, but recognizing the trends can make a difference.

Here are a few players that have seen the stock rise and fall over the past few years.  The Round each player was selected is referenced in the stats.

Stock Up

Roy Halladay

Owners apparantly thought it best to take little sips of Roy Halladay before settling on the fact he is a pretty darn good pitcher. Four different years have been drafted in the past five seasons.  In ATB 12 he had a cup of coffee and a ERA over 6.  A year later he made 19 starts, but was below league average and last only 10 innings in ATB 14.  Finally, after the 500 resims Jeff B tried the 2002 version in ATB 15 (6th round) and in 255 innings Halladay compiled a 3.46 ERA.

Scott Rolen

This is a true head scratcher and I hope this post sets the world right again.  In ATB 12, the backup third basemen came to the plate just 59 times, justifiable for an 18th rounder.  A year later, Ivar caught some lightning in a bottle, getting a .774 OPS out of him in 34 games.

Along with the new found league wide love of defense, this brief success caused temporarity insanity in Sean, who jumped 10 rounds and drafted him in the 8th.  Rolen was awful with a .455 OPS in 223 at bats.  This must have looked good to Steve C, who took Rolen a round even earlier the following year.

He was awful yet again, so of course TJ took him another round earlier last season.  He was somewhat rewarded with a .306 OBP and .421 SLG.  Hopefully this doesn't make him a 1st rounder in January.

Bobby Murcer

Murcer is one of those players who are simultaneously over- and underratted at the same time.  Murcer can hit, but can't field.  He has some memorable seasons for some great teams as well.  In ATB 12 and 13, the centerfielder was drafted in the 11th and put up wonderful numbers (.327 / .392 / .479 in over 1,100 at bats) only to fall 4 slots to the 15th round in ATB 14.  He proceeded to have his worst season since ATB 7, and sure enough, owners finally caught on to his prowess (again helped by the 500 resims), and jumped on him in the 8th two years ago.  Last year, he went in the 6th.

Brett Saberhagen

We may have to rename this article, "the players who owe their careers to the 500 resims."  Sabes is another example of the 500 resims identifying talent.  Stuck in the early to mid teen rounds, the resims showed his talent and he is currently considered a viable 5th round pick.


Stock Down
Brooks Robinson

The defensive specialist (in ATB terms anwyay) has never been a particularly good player.  However, he was a decidely great MLB player which has caused him to be taken too early in years past.  Owners are now realizing he can be had in the later rounds and have appropriately adjusted.


David Cone

Cone has always been a pretty good pitcher and definitely worthy of a pick somewhere in the 12-15 range.  However, the 5th round is more than a stretch.

Overall in his entire history, not just the past 5 years, he's had incredible variation in draft slots:

ATB 7 - Undrafted (Brad P)
ATB 8 - Unknown
ATB 9 - 11th Round (Mike W)
ATB 10 - 4th Round (Mike T)
ATB 11 - 24th Round (Allen C)
ATB 12 - 5th Round (Allen C) 
ATB 13 - 8th ROund (Jeff B
ATB 14 - 12th Round (Mike S)
ATB 15 - 15th Round (Lou P)
ATB 16 - 15th Round (Mike S)

Interestingly, Cone did very well in the 355 resims (3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and may be headed for another earl selection within the 1st 10 rounds.

Dazzy Vance

I admit1924 Dazzy Vance should be a lot better than he is, but his real life 1.02 WHIP and 2.08 ERA is quite good but it has never translated to ATB.  The righty has performed about league average between ATB 13 and 15, and eventually dropped to the 27th round last year, only making into 1 game.  He had a decent enough resim to be useful as 5th starter or long man, but his days of 5th rounds picks should be done.

Ernie Banks

In a similar story to that of Robinson, Banks is a real life star ported to software hat doesn't appreciate his type of skillset.  Banks' real life numbers translate to a sub-.300 on base percentage and despite decent power, just doesn't warrent consideration in any regular role.

He did smack 27 HR in 613 plate appearances during the resims, so his power is legitimate.  Perhaps with a hands on manager one can find use?

Hal Newhouser

In ATB 10, Newhouse was drafted in the 3rd and sporeted a 5.85 ERA and 1.71 WHIP for Steve G.  Shotgun tried a different year in ATB 11, it didn't work, and Mike W was impressed enough with this failure to take him in the 2nd (!) in ATB 12.

TJ O caught on to the trend and waited 6 rounds before grabbing him in the next season, but while Newhouser's ERA was respectable (3.61) his WHIP of 1.59 showed not much had changed.  A year later he went in the 7th and made 38 starts despite a 4.93 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.

Finally, in ATB 15, owners had had enough, and waited until the 15th to give him another shot.  Leanne S enjoyed an above average starter in 29 games.  In ATB 16, Newhouser went nuts for Joe V, to the tune of a 2.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 40 games (26 starts).