Predicted the Rest of the Way*

Boring prediction time - the teams that lead divisions and lead the wild card race will end up staying where they are and heading to the playoffs.

There is some math behind it though, but first look at the chart.  It shows:

• The teams current record
• How many games they have left, and how many of those are away games
• The combined opponents winning percentage
• Based upon Bill James Log5 formula, a projection of the the record for each team the Rest of the Way
• And finally the predicted win total for each team.

It ends up boring as there are no expected changes, but there are reasons why.

• The NL East has two solid teams, separated by just a half a game.  But the division leader has an easier strength of schedule the rest of the way.
• It's a similar story in the NL West.  Both teams are good, both have easy schedules, but the division leading Toppins schedule is easiest of the two.
• The AL Wild Card may be the most interesting.  Two teams that are good but not great, and both have difficult schedules left, especially Newport Beach which as 9 of their last 12 games on the road.  Given each team is playing competition better than them, a losing streak might be all it takes to send Critical packing.
• Finally, in the NL Wildcard, Lakeview has a soft remaining schedule but a lot of away games.  The math says the odds are they don't make up enough ground and Inglorious holds on.

Of course, math is sometimes meaningless, that's why they play the games!

*apologies to the teams on the outside looking in.  I didn't include all the teams that are mathematically still alive.  Maybe it will serve as a reverse jinx for you.