Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Resim Power Alley: 16th through 13th

16th - Willets Point Mechanics (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: Matt Brody
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 72/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/67

Avg RD: -8
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 98

With 72 regular season wins, these re-sims must be bittersweet for owner Matt Brody. In ATB XI the Mechanics sported a -97 run differential, a figure the team sunk to only once in all of the 20 re-sims. In short, ATB XI was about as unlucky of a season Willets Point could have suffered through. They underperformed in Win total (-11%), Runs Scored (-8%), and Runs Against (-4%).

There true level of talent is almost exactly a .500 team - 81 wins a minus-8 run differential.

15th - Old Pete's Rabble (HC - It Could Be)
Owners: PC, Grrrr
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 75/82
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/72

Avg RD: 0
Playoffs: 2
MWP: 99

Here's the computer team that finished above .500 in 11 of the re-sims. Their early round picks were deferred to later in the draft as we searched for an owner too - what might have been.

14th - Edinburgh Caber Tossers (HC - It Might Be)
Owners: TJ Olszewski
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 85/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 91/72

Avg RD: -20
Playoffs: 4
MWP: 99

We've gone through 9 teams and now encounter our first team that outperformed it's 20-resim average. I really don't know why that is, but there has to be something too it - nine in a row is too much for coincidence. Why would all the lower ranked teams play even worse in the regular season than the re-sims?

TJ led his squad to 85 wins and at the end of August actually had the wild card lead before trailing off quickly, ultimately losing the last WC slot to Planet 10. This was a clear over achievement that normally this can be attributed to a hands on computer manager, but in this case TJ had limited time and made few lineup adjustments.

In terms of Run Differential, the team outperformed the re-sim average by 70 runs, third highest of any team. Overall during the re-sims, Edinbrugh averaged an RD of -20. They fair well in the rankings, at least when compared with the bottom ranked teams, because their upside was fairly high - they won 87 or more games six times, made the playoffs 4 times, and had a solid max win potential of 99.

13th - Chi Town Black Sox (VS - It Gets by Buckner)
Owners: Mike Thannasides, Zach Bernstein
Actual W/Avg Re-Sim W: 80/81
Re-Sim Max / Min Wins: 92/70

Avg RD: +6
Playoffs: 3 (1 Div Title)
MWP: 97

What immediately comes to mind with Chi-Town is figuring out an explanation as to why their pitching staff let up 57 fewer runs in the regular season. Their total Runs Against of 680 is easily better then each of the RA values in the re-sims, with just season six approaching, but not close to equalling, that level of success. Likely just another reason that 20 sims truly isn't enough to be completely accurate on team skill.

The first division winner we've come across, with an 86-76 record in season 18 the Black Sox took advantage of an across the board down season in "It Gets by Buckner" to narrowly edge Helena by 2 games. Their best record came the re-sim prior, but even with 92 wins fell short of the division lead by 4 games though they did secure a playoff birth via the wild card.

Chi-Town finished with a positive RD and 80 ore more wins 12 of 20 times. Their max win potential of 97 is a bit on short side considering the 92 win season under their belt, but the combination of a division title, and overall net positive RD boosted their score.

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