Tuesday, January 24, 2012

79 Resims

 (Posting the email from this morning here at the blog).

File can be downloaded here.  Computer Draft here.

Well, after 14 hours of processing only 79 of 100 seasons were completed and I called it.  Our 100 sim re-baseline has turned into 79 sims.  Still, that's 2.7 million plate appearances and 4.1 million innings pitched - plenty to give us all an idea of general ranking.

A few things to sink your teeth into:

As I mentioned, this all PC driven.  Joe Neale wasn't drafted, and not in the sim.  In fact, 110 pitchers in all weren't drafted including years from Cannonball Titcomb, Jesse Tannehill, and Roy Halladay.  13 Batters weren't drafted, with most of them being modern time DH types like Edgar Martinez, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, and Milton Bradley.

We normally have 16-24 teams in a league.  This sim had 56, so the player pool is thinned out considerably.  This means fringe players will tend to do better in this type of league than in ATB.  Don't get too excited over Al Wingo's .360 OBP, it will likely be much lower in an ATB league when he is facing better pitching every day.  Personally, I feel the relative order of the players is more important than the stats they are putting up.

The pitching file includes each team's average defensive alignment.  Since defense is critical to pitcher success, you can't evaluate a pitcher without it.  Greg Maddux had a 2.92 ERA with a defense that averaged an Av/73 in the infield, AV/81 in the outfield, and an Av Catchers Arm.  This is poor compared to other teams, so expect Maddux to be a bit better than he showed.  Dick Donovan on the other hand, had stellar defense behind him and his ERA is likely too good to be true.

Finally, please pay attention to the total innings pitched or at bats.  The aforementioned Donovan shows 6th best, but this is only a sample size issue - he averaged less than 10 IP per season.

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