Sunday, January 3, 2016

1800s Fielding Ratings Updated on the Site and Blog

The Player Cards and the main Batter Rating report have been updated.

Here is a re-print of this morning email too:

I know this is fairly short notice, but I have decided to improve the defensive error rates for our 1800s player set.  There are some very significant and meaningful changes.

Our newest owner, Joel, inquired why the 1800s players had such poor error rates, even when they had better than average fielding percentages.  This was because DMB never created the leage average error rate for years prior to 1895 and I simply used those for the entire player set.  

This was a poor way to do it.

Joel's questioning led me to investigate and I can determine these error rates on my own (using the Lahman DB).  Thanks Joel!!!

As one might expect, error rates became worse and worse the earlier back in time I went.  As an example, second basemen averaged 97 errors per 100 games in 1875, but only 44 in 1895.  As a result, the players I created from the earliest years were heavily penalized.

The results as wonderful as they are accurate, but they also will throw a monkey wrench into draft day.  Here are some of the major changes:

  • George Hall: Av/342 down to Av/171
  • Ross Barnes: Ex/124 down to Ex/56
  • Ed Swartwood: Av/209 down to Av/131
  • Fred Dunlap: Vg/111 down to Vg/76
  • Orator Shaffer: Ex/105 down to Ex/71
There are others.  In all, 84 player seasons changed, though, only 36 of these were drafted last year.

Attached is a file of all the changes.  The website reports are not updated yet, but will work on them ASAP.

Also - the Stadium Draft begins Wednesday, 8 picks per day, in reverse order of the player draft.  I should have the draft board up by tonight.

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