Friday, February 11, 2011

100 Sim Results - Center Field

These are the results of 100 baseline resims (ended up being 95 seasons due to a silly mistake on my part, though I will continue to call it the 100 sim baseline). Each season was run in neutral parks. Injuries were turned on, each team had a strict 5 man rotation, and the schedule was set for 154 games. To date, we've completed the reviews for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, and left fielders. Here is a link to the full detail by position.

While Left Field is home to the most elite batters in ATB, center field is the deepest position. 13 of the 15 starters had OPS scores above .700. Leading the way is 1957 Mickey Mantle. The Commerce Commet has it all. He batted .316 /. 430 / .480 with 21 home runs, 20 doubles, 5 triples, and was one of just 5 players to have a batting average over .310. He also averaged 13 stolen bases against just 4 caught stealing

1925 Oscar Charleston and 1917 Ty Cobb rank two – three before 6 players vie for 4th best. Charleston recorded more extra base hits than Mantle (50 vs 55) and bats a robust .292, but his lack of walks bring down has value considerably.

Cobb is ranked behind Charleston in my rankings, but had I seen this earlier I would have altered them. At issue is Cobb’s five home runs which are obviously extremely low. However, because of his gap power, Cobb averaged 32 dobles and and 16 triples which should make up for the lack of true raw home run power. Comparing their lines, I think it clear which is the better player

OC - .292 / .337 / .448, 22 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, +20 SB
TC - .316 / .363 / .446, 32 2B, 16 3B, 5 HR, +19 SB

In the next tier of players, 1894 Hugh Duffy is the most balanced (.345 OBP, .421 SLG) while 1885 Pete Browing, 1915 Benny Kauff, and 1916 Tris Speaker offer high on base percentages and little power, and 1941 Joe DiMaggio and 1954 Duke Snider offer good power but league average OBP’s.

A note on Speaker. His .382 slugging average is a definite dissappointment, but it may be the year chosen. For this exercise I chose 1916 (185 OPS+) but many owners prefer 1912 (188 OPS+). Keep this in mind on draft day.

Their resim rankings:

01) 0.316 / 0.430 / 0.480 - 1957 Mantle,Mickey
02) 0.292 / 0.337 / 0.448 - 1925 Charleston,Oscar
03) 0.316 / 0.363 / 0.446 - 1917 Cobb,Ty
04) 0.299 / 0.345 / 0.421 - 1894 Duffy,Hugh
05) 0.266 / 0.378 / 0.363 - 1885 Browning,Pete
06) 0.277 / 0.362 / 0.385 - 1915 Kauff,Benny
07) 0.318 / 0.385 / 0.382 - 1916 Speaker,Tris
08) 0.273 / 0.327 / 0.427 - 1941 DiMaggio,Joe
09) 0.267 / 0.324 / 0.424 - 1954 Snider,Duke
10) 0.284 / 0.329 / 0.399 - 1905 Seymour,Cy
11) 0.239 / 0.333 / 0.425 - 2004 Edmonds,Jim
12) 0.239 / 0.302 / 0.416 - 1993 Griffey Jr.,Ken
13) 0.244 / 0.294 / 0.427 - 1965 Mays,Willie
14) 0.283 / 0.372 / 0.317 - 1898 Hamilton,Billy
15) 0.269 / 0.313 / 0.388 - 1941 Reiser,Pete
16) 0.183 / 0.300 / 0.287 - 1969 Wynn,Jim

Recapping the #1 choices at each position
CA-’86 Kelly - -.310 / .399 / .380, 179 TB
1B-’27 Gehrig - .297 / .375 / .584, 336 TB
2B-’24 Hornsby- .301 / .373 / .444, 260 TB
3B-’80 Brett - -.304 / .351 / .454, 278 TB
SS-’35 Vaughan -.274 / .366 / .381, 226 TB
LF-’02 Bonds - -.292 / .485 / .549, 263 TB
CF-’57 Mantle - .316 / .430 / .480, 270 TB

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