Monday, June 11, 2012

20 Resims: #13 Helena Handbasket


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


Well, this team is better than what is showed.  Joe T’s #2 draft pick in Willie McCovey was not placed in the starting lineups, and instead of enjoying another .800+ OPS batter, the team was stuck with Eddie Murray who batted .263 / .333 / .358.  I am not suggesting that McCovey makes Helena a top 5 or even top 10 team this a top 10 franchise, but they certainly would have placed better than .500 and would have scored a positive run differential.

Overall, this was an interesting result for Helena.  They featured some big names across the roster. Offensively Stan Musial (see below) was his typical wonderful self, hitting 32 doubles, 14 triples, and 17 home runs per season and then batters such as Chipper Jones (.373 OBP) and Paul Waner (.354 OBP) did more than hold their own.

They also featured three good starters and three good relievers (see below) so why did they struggle, floating around .500 over the course of the 20 re-sims?  While not the only reasons, Rabbit Maranville and White Ford are the two most significant.  Maranville, a shortstop, was truly awful and may have been the worst everyday hitter in ATB.  He batted .202 / .235 / .220 in 608 plate appearances.  Not sure I have seen a .220 slugging before.  Ford was almost as bad, recording a 1.57 WHIP and 4.78 ERA in 33 starts.

The lesson?  You can have a great draft but even a handful of  selections that  don’t pan out might sink your playoff chances.

800 OPS Batters: 
Stan Musial: .864 OPS,306 / .348 / .516, 348 TB, 119 RBI

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Walter Johnson: 3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14 W
Cliff Melton: 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 11 W
Chris Carpenter: 3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Eric Gagne: 2.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 37 Saves
Armando Benetiz: 2.79, 1.23 ERA
Rob Murphy: 2.47 ERA

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 22: Joe Berry 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHP, 136 IP in relief

Bust Draft Pick
None, though one could argue Nellie Fox isn’t a 5th round pick (.279 / .341 / .305)


Tally so Far
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers
#17 – Planet 10 Red Lectroids
#16 – North Podunk Banana Bears
#15 – Willets Point “Mechanics”
#14 – Saginaw Slammers
#13 – Helena Handbasket

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