Wednesday, June 6, 2012

20 Resims: #18 Haven Tommyknockers


At the end of each season owners may submit a new lineup that is used in the 20 Resim competition.  This competition is purely for speculation and is used as a gauge to determine who had the best draft.  The true ATB champion remains the World Series winner.


20 seasons are automatically simulated and compiled.  No lineup changes are allowed and injuries are turned off.  Through a formula that considers Win-Loss record, Playoff Appearances, and Pythagorean Record the teams are ranked in order from worst to first. 


Special thanks to Justin B who provided the formula and methodology behind the raw park OPS values, which provides a new way to interpret park factors.


We’re now moving into teams that put forth solid seasons more often than not.  TJ O’s Haven Tommyknockers show a resim minimum of 63 wins, but that appears to be a freak occurrence from sim 12 – the next worst season was 8 games better (sim 14).  For all intents and purposes, the Tommyknockers won between 70-85 games each year.

Playing in a pitchers park, the average team ERA was quite good at 3.55.  In fact, four of their starting 5 pitchers are listed below, and the 5th starter Tim Hudson narrowly missed the cut-off with a 4.21 ERA.

Led by Bobby Jenks (below) the relief corps was generally adequate if not spectacular, featuring a host of average to better than average pitchers.  Unlike the previous teams we’ve analyzed, there were no glaring mistakes to point out.

The same is not true offensively.  Using the 2nd and 4th picks in the draft for starting pitching damaged the Tommyknockers as they could not find any value batters late in the draft.  Lou Gehrig was great of course, but only one other regular had an OBP better than .310.  The park is to blame for some of the struggles, but with regulars such Tony Gwynn, Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Charlie Keller and Willie McGee the offense was bound to struggle.

The poor play from Eddie Mathews does warrant a mention.  In the 79 resims the third basemen batted .263 / .341 / .474.   In his ATB career he batted .252 / .331 / .453.  This season, he batted .219 / .287 / .408. The lesson?  If you choose a pitchers park, the lineup needs to feature good on-base skills.  Mathews, along with 6 other regulars (including platoons) had OBP’s under .300.    This led to the worst offense in the game, not an easy feat with Lou Gehrig in the lineup.

800 OPS Batters: 
Lou Gehrig: .912 OPS, .278 / .352 / .560

Sub 4.00 ERA Starters
Cy Blanton: 14 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Tim Lincecum: 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Monty Stratton: 3.94 ERA
Whit Wyatt: 3.96 ERA

Sub 3.25 ERA Relievers
Bobby Jenks: 2.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 87 IP

Best Value Draft Pick
Rd 24: Mike Williams, 3.22 ERA in 29 IP

Bust Draft Pick
Rd 3: Eddie Matthews and his .696 OPS.


 Tally
#24 - Downsouth Brews
#23 - Leesburg Snow
#22 – dogphin29
#21 – Team America World Police
#21 – Uncle Robbie’s Daffiness Boys
#19 – Indiana Black Sox
#18 – Haven Tommyknockers

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