Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Did We (I) Make a Mistake With the Negro Leaugers'?


Are the Negro Leaguer's too good?  Did we make a mistake by including them ATB this year?

This question was posed to me by another owner earlier yesterday afternoon, no doubt asked in the wake of the Oscar Charleston offensive tear and another RBI by Turkey Stearnes (93 now).

Lets see what we are dealing with....

Looking at batters (using wOPS)
- 4 of the top 25 are NL'ers
- 5 of top 50
- 7 of top 75
- 8 of top 100

Due to vast differences in innings pitched I broke the pitchers into groups.

Starters (using RCERA)
- 1 of Top 25
- 3 of Top 50
- 3 of TOp 75
- 6 of Top 100

Relievers (Using RCERA)
- 0 of Top 25
- 0 of Top 50
- 0 of TOp 75
- 0 of TOp 100

It's clear there are no anamolies with pitching as NL'ers only make about 4-6 % of each of the starting pitchers categories.  Relievers are much worse, with only 1 NL'er in the top 100.

Batters are a bit more interesting.  I have no issue with 8-10% NL'ers in the Top 50, Top 75, and Top 100 but does it makes sense that 4 NL'ers are in the Top 25?  That's 16% of the player pool which does seem high.  A closer look reveals that Dobie Moore is currently in the top 25 and given the resim results (.692 OPS) it stands to reason his proximity to the top of the rank list may be fleeting.  Taking him out does make the percentages more palatable at 12%

We've only looked at raw statistics and have not accounted for park factors.  Lets re-run the batting numbers using ATB Value.  Unsurprisingly We find little change, with just 1 fewer at the very top and 1 fewer in the top-100.

Batters (using ATB Value):
- 3 of the top 25 are NL'ers
- 5 of top 50
- 6 of top 75
- 7 of top 100

In summary, 7% of the top 100 and 12% of the Top 25 are NL'ers.  Is this too high?  Ideally, I would have expected perhaps 1 less NL'er in the Top 25 but by season's end we may have exactly that since Moore is currently ranked 15th in ATB Value.  Overall, I have little to complain about the NL'ers.

Having gone through all this I've concluded the real question is solely about Oscar Charleston.  He's currently batting .361 / .453 / .697 and if he keeps up that pace he'll tie Barry Bonds for the higest ATB Value in league history.  Remember that ATB Value considers defense as well, and to be fair, his current pace is well off the un-adjusted wOBA record of .487 (vs Charleston's .456).  Therefore it's not a question of his raw numbers being to good for ATB - we've seen them before - rather it's a question of should Charleston truly be as good as Babe Ruth.

I can't answer that.  If you talk to Negro League historians they'll tell you Charleston may have been better than Ruth.  In fact, Charleston was often compared to both Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb, a fearsome combination to behold.  I am very comfortable that the DMB game engine is handling Oscar "properly" in terms of real life statistics entered and the simmed output.  After all, his real life batting line was .451 / .552 / .826 in 1925-1926.

The ultimate question is whether the Negro League stats should be counted equally against the Major League stats, and I make no claim to know the answer to that one.  I am just glad we have some new talent to spread around the league.

Back Up Data
For fun, here are the wOPS scores by position with a note stating whether the player is a NL'er, an MLB'er Existing in the Database, or new MLB'er for ATB V.

CATCHER
0.906 - Gibson,Josh (NFB) - Old NL'er
0.832 - Daulton,Darren (BS) - Existing
0.825 - Dickey,Bill (BF) - Existing
0.810 - Napoli,Mike (NVB) - Existing
0.787 - White,Deacon (DCC) - Existing
0.777 - Piazza,Mike (WPM) - Existing
0.775 - Scioscia,Mike (CGS) - Existing
0.756 - Carroll,Fred (SH) - Existing
0.740 - Mauer,Joe (MRE) - Existing
0.727 - Kelly,King (SPB) - Existing
0.678 - Campanella,Roy (RBB) - Existing
0.658 - Lopez,Javy (DB) - Existing
0.654 - Cochrane,Mickey (PBE) - Existing
0.652 - Hartnett,Gabby (TWW) - New
0.649 - Berra,Yogi (SM) - Existing
0.646 - Posada,Jorge (JMF) - Existing
0.596 - Posey,Buster (PCP) - New
0.591 - Howard,Elston (LS) - Existing
0.565 - Nilsson,Dave (DT) - New
0.557 - Porter,Darrell (OFB) - Existing
0.546 - Hoiles,Chris (RKA) - Existing
0.520 - McCarver,Tim (PRL) - Existing

FIRST BASE
0.968 - Giambi,Jason (CGS) - Existing
0.881 - Connor,Roger (BF) - Existing
0.872 - Brouthers,Dan (DB) - Existing
0.859 - Foxx,Jimmie (WPM) - Existing
0.851 - Sisler,George (RBB) - Existing
0.829 - McGwire,Mark (JMF) - Existing
0.818 - Cavarretta,Phil (PCP) - Existing
0.817 - Cash,Norm (LS) - Existing
0.809 - McCovey,Willie (HH) - Existing
0.809 - Pujols,Albert (PRL) - Existing
0.800 - Pena,Carlos (RKA) - Existing
0.786 - Olerud,John (SPB) - Existing
0.786 - Wesley,Edgar (LPL) - NL'er
0.781 - Mize,Johnny (NVB) - Existing
0.769 - Votto,Joey (MRE) - New
0.751 - Leonard,Buck (BS) - Old NL'er
0.734 - Tucker,Tommy (NFB) - Existing
0.697 - Bagwell,Jeff (SM) - Existing
0.694 - Terry,Bill (OFB) - Existing
0.647 - Helton,Todd (SH) - Existing
0.641 - Taylor,Ben (DCC) - NL'er
0.608 - Delgado,Carlos (DT) - Existing
0.606 - Carew,Rod (HH) - Existing
0.606 - Greenberg,Hank (PBE) - Existing

SECOND BASE
0.957 - Barnes,Ross (DCC) - Existing
0.926 - Hornsby,Rogers (DT) - Existing
0.897 - Lajoie,Nap (NFB) - Existing
0.849 - Dunlap,Fred (RBB) - Existing
0.825 - Doyle,Larry (PCP) - Existing
0.815 - Myer,Buddy (DB) - Existing
0.772 - Childs,Cupid (SPB) - Existing
0.747 - Alomar,Roberto (SM) - Existing
0.731 - Collins,Eddie (LPL) - Existing
0.729 - Richardson,Hardy (WPM) - Existing
0.717 - Morgan,Joe (BF) - Existing
0.701 - Zobrist,Ben (BS) - Existing
0.698 - Robinson,Jackie (TWW) - Existing
0.683 - Boone,Bret (CGS) - Existing
0.677 - Roberts,Bip (RKA) - Existing
0.662 - Frisch,Frankie (MRE) - New
0.653 - Evers,Johnny (PBE) - Existing
0.646 - Cano,Robinson (LS) - New
0.629 - Utley,Chase (JMF) - Existing
0.592 - Gordon,Joe (PRL) - Existing
0.581 - Schoendienst,Red (NVB) - Existing
0.544 - Fox,Nellie (HH) - Existing
0.490 - Huggins,Miller (OFB) - New

THIRD BASE
0.837 - McGraw,John (MRE) - Existing
0.833 - Caminiti,Ken (RKA) - Existing
0.772 - Baker,Frank (LPL) - Existing
0.769 - Mathews,Eddie () - Existing
0.762 - Schmidt,Mike (NVB) - Existing
0.734 - Burns,Oyster (CGS) - Existing
0.734 - Torre,Joe (PBE) - Existing
0.732 - Beltre,Adrian (HH) - Existing
0.731 - Sutton,Ezra () - Existing
0.727 - Killebrew,Harmon (RBB) - Existing
0.716 - Jones,Chipper (SH) - Existing
0.714 - Johnson,Howard (DB) - Existing
0.690 - Bradley,Bill (PRL) - Existing
0.679 - Boggs,Wade (SPB) - Existing
0.673 - Guerrero,Pedro (BF) - Existing
0.671 - Allen,Dick (SM) - Existing
0.666 - Johnson,Judy (NFB) - NL'er
0.656 - Rodriguez,Alex (BS) - Existing
0.654 - Zimmerman,Heinie (LS) - Existing
0.542 - Molitor,Paul (DT) - Existing

SHORTSTOP
0.907 - Vaughan,Arky (SM) - Existing
0.849 - Moore,Dobie (PRL) - NL'er
0.818 - Travis,Cecil (PCP) - Existing
0.782 - Jeter,Derek (PCP) - Existing
0.776 - Sewell,Joe (MRE) - Existing
0.712 - Boudreau,Lou (HH) - Existing
0.710 - Trammell,Alan (TWW) - Existing
0.708 - Jennings,Hughie (JMF) - Existing
0.702 - Wagner,Honus (LPL) - Existing
0.695 - Wells,Willie (NVB) - NL'er
0.694 - Yount,Robin (RBB) - Existing
0.686 - Davis,George (LS) - Existing
0.670 - Ward,John (CGS) - Existing
0.663 - Carr,George (DB) - NL'er
0.658 - Garciaparra,Nomar (NFB) - Existing
0.652 - Appling,Luke (PBE) - Existing
0.632 - Dahlen,Bill (DT) - Existing
0.632 - Lloyd,Pop (DCC) - NL'er
0.630 - Smith,Ozzie (SPB) - New
0.615 - Ramirez,Hanley (RKA) - Existing

LEFT FIELD
0.975 - Bonds,Barry (JMF) - Existing
0.974 - Williams,Ted (TWW) - Existing
0.899 - Stearnes,Turkey (MRE) - NL'er
0.832 - Gonzalez,Luis (RBB) - Existing
0.809 - O'Neill,Tip (PCP) - Existing
0.798 - Stone,George (BF) - Existing
0.781 - Gore,George (SH) - Existing
0.762 - Goslin,Goose (LS) - Existing
0.730 - Hamilton,Josh (DB) - Existing
0.728 - Foster,George () - Existing
0.723 - Henderson,Rickey (PRL) - Existing
0.720 - Williams,Ken (NVB) - Existing
0.719 - Reiser,Pete (BS) - Existing
0.708 - Burkett,Jesse (SPB) - Existing
0.695 - Clarke,Fred (OFB) - Existing
0.691 - Sheckard,Jimmy (TWW) - Existing
0.690 - Magee,Sherry (DCC) - Existing
0.670 - Stargell,Willie (RKA) - Existing
0.645 - Combs,Earle (DCC) - Existing
0.628 - Yastrzemski,Carl (LPL) - Existing
0.618 - Medwick,Joe (NFB) - Existing
0.571 - Williams,Billy (DT) - Existing

CENTERFIELD
1.132 - Charleston,Oscar (SPB) - NL'er
0.890 - Mantle,Mickey (HH) - Existing
0.869 - Snider,Duke (NFB) - Existing
0.855 - DiMaggio,Joe (RKA) - Existing
0.828 - Cobb,Ty (PRL) - Existing
0.816 - Rogan,Bullet (CGS) - NL'er
0.814 - Doby,Larry (HH) - Existing
0.799 - Seymour,Cy (LPL) - Existing
0.769 - Murcer,Bobby (DB) - Existing
0.756 - Mays,Willie (SM) - Existing
0.751 - Browning,Pete (NVB) - Existing
0.749 - Kauff,Benny (PBE) - Existing
0.748 - Trout,Mike (LS) - New
0.730 - Ashburn,Richie (SH) - Existing
0.721 - Duffy,Hugh (DT) - Existing
0.715 - McGee,Willie (TWW) - Existing
0.714 - Speaker,Tris (WPM) - Existing
0.702 - Edmonds,Jim (BF) - Existing
0.693 - Hill,Pete (BS) - NL'er
0.685 - Pike,Lip (MRE) - Existing
0.680 - Torriente,Cristobal (DCC) - NL'er
0.667 - Hamilton,Billy (TWW) - Existing
0.653 - Jethroe,Sam (RBB) - Old NL'er
0.636 - Dykstra,Lenny (OFB) - Existing
0.615 - Thomas,Roy (JMF) - Existing

RIGHT FIELD
1.092 - Ruth,Babe (CGS) - Existing
0.967 - Griffey Jr.,Ken (BS) - Existing
0.831 - Delahanty,Ed (MRE) - New
0.829 - Colavito,Rocky (LPL) - Existing
0.805 - Herman,Babe (PCP) - Existing
0.805 - Holmes,Tommy (SM) - Existing
0.794 - Heilmann,Harry (DB) - Existing
0.790 - Jackson,Joe (TWW) - Existing
0.789 - Shaffer,Orator (SH) - Existing
0.787 - Musial,Stan (PBE) - Existing
0.756 - Canseco,Jose (OFB) - Existing
0.755 - Youngs,Ross (SPB) - Existing
0.750 - Crawford,Sam (HH) - Existing
0.746 - Clemente,Roberto (HH) - Existing
0.740 - O'Neill,Paul (DT) - Existing
0.730 - Rose,Pete (DB) - Existing
0.726 - Aaron,Hank (LS) - Existing
0.720 - Smith,Reggie (SM) - Existing
0.719 - Walker,Larry (PBE) - Existing
0.705 - Guerrero,Vladimir (NVB) - Existing
0.697 - Keeler,Willie (NFB) - Existing
0.689 - Lynn,Fred (BF) - Existing
0.685 - Robinson,Frank (DCC) - Existing
0.672 - Waner,Paul (OFB) - Existing
0.650 - Maris,Roger (RKA) - Existing

DESIGNATED HITTER
0.954 - Hall,George (WPM) - Existing
0.946 - Gehrig,Lou (BS) - Existing
0.941 - Johnson,Heavy (BF) - NL'er
0.879 - Martinez,Edgar (SH) - Existing
0.810 - Jackson,Reggie (RKA) - Existing
0.795 - Thompson,Sam (PCP) - Existing
0.786 - Heath,Jeff (RBB) - Existing
0.786 - Belle,Albert (JMF) - Existing
0.785 - Rile,Ed (LS) - NL'er
0.779 - Hafner,Travis (SPB) - Existing
0.767 - Berkman,Lance (LPL) - Existing
0.763 - Joyce,Bill (DCC) - Existing
0.739 - Gentile,Jim (CGS) - Existing
0.736 - Singleton,Ken (OFB) - Existing
0.727 - Anson,Cap (RBB) - Existing
0.726 - Clark,Will (PRL) - Existing
0.726 - Howard,Ryan (NVB) - Existing
0.658 - Giles,Brian (DT) - Existing
0.628 - Kelley,Joe (PBE) - Existing
0.620 - Ott,Mel (NFB) - Existing
0.615 - Thome,Jim (SM) - Existing
0.615 - Thomas,Frank (MRE) - Existing

STARTING PITCHER (RSAA)
-40.5 - Martinez,Pedro (OFB) - Existing
-29.9 - Blanton,Cy (TWW) - Existing
-27.4 - Hubbell,Carl (TWW) - Existing
-26.4 - Jones,Randy (DCC) - Existing
-26.4 - Haren,Danny (BS) - Existing
-26.0 - Marichal,Juan (OFB) - Existing
-23.8 - Maddux,Greg (SH) - Existing
-22.0- - Mathewson,Christy (RBB) - Existing
-21.3 - Siever,Ed (SPB) - Existing
-19.8 - King,Silver (BS) - Existing
-19.8 - Yokely,Norman (MRE) - NL'ER
-19.8 - Podres,Johnny (MRE) - Existing
-18.9 - Bernhard,Bill (OFB) - Existing
-17.5 - Orth,Al (CGS) - Existing
-15.7 - Chesbro,Jack (SM) - Existing
-14.7 - Tudor,John (SPB) - Existing
-13.0 - Braxton,Garland (MRE) - Existing
-11.9 - Reulbach,Ed (NVB) - Existing
-10.9 - Johnson,Walter (RKA) - Existing
-9.5 - Sullivan,Frank (SH) - Existing
-9.4 - Hacker,Warren (SH) - Existing
-8.8 - Verlander,Justin (LS) - Existing
-6.9 - Clemens,Roger (NVB) - Existing
-6.9 - Derringer,Paul (JMF) - New
-6.4 - Winters,Nip (LS) - NL'ER

RELIEF PITCHER
-13.6 - Murphy,Rob (DCC) - Existing
-13.5 - Henry,Bill (OFB) - Existing
-11.8 - McGraw,Tug (DCC) - Existing
-8.9 - Gregg,Vean (NVB) - Existing
-8.2 - Holland,Greg (TWW) - Existing
-7.5 - Kuo,Hong-Chih (SPB) - Existing
-7.0 - Ryan,Red (WPM) - NL
-6.5 - Eckersley,Dennis () - Existing
-6.3 - White,Gabe (JMF) - Existing
-6.2 - Jenks,Bobby (SH) - Existing
-5.6 - Rivera,Mariano (BF) - Existing
-5.5 - Eichhorn,Mark (LPL) - Existing
-5.4 - Hall,Dick (OFB) - Existing
-5.0 - Putz,J.J. (RKA) - Existing
-4.7 - Dorr,Bert (NFB) - Existing
-4.5 - Wilson,Paul (SPB) - Existing
-3.9 - Meredith,Cla (PCP) - Existing
-2.4 - Prim,Ray (SM) - Existing
-1.9 - Foulke,Keith (NVB) - Existing
-1.6 - Myers,Mike (JMF) - Existing
-0.2 - Russell,Jeff (SM) - Existing
0.0 - Gagne,Eric (SH) - Existing
0.2 - Ryan,B.J. (PCP) - Existing
0.3 - Bailey,Andrew (SH) - Existing
0.7 - Sutter,Bruce (BS) - Existing

4 comments:

  1. Is Red Ryan really not in the top 100 relievers by RCERA? I think you need to reassess, he should be top 10ish...

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. yes, I think they should all be removed, especially that Charleston character :)

    easy for me to say with my lily white squad

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  4. Somehow missed him Matt. He's 9th among relievers

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