Monday, December 10, 2012

Abandoning the Hate for Jimmie Foxx

Long has Jimmie Foxx been questioned as an early first round draft choice.  Over the last few seasons, Foxx has been drafted 7th, 11th, 9th, 11th, and 11th.  Here's his player card:

As always, click to enlarge
While this is certainly very good, a first basemen with a .349 OBP is generally not sufficient reward for a high draft choice.  In the last two seasons the following batters were still on the draft board when Foxx was drafted (ATB average stats in parenthesis): 

Ted Williams - - (.334 / .446 / .533)
Norm Cash - - -- (.309 / .397 / .473)
Ross Barnes - -- (.345 / .397 / .451)
Rogers Hornsby - (.310 / .380 / .464)
Fred Dunlap - -- (.322 / .384 / .450)
(Plus others who are arguably on par or better - Honus Wagner, Greg Maddux, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Tris Speaker, and Stan Musial)

Williams is obviously the better choice but so is Cash and any one of the big three second basemen.  Yet the allure of the 40+ home run season is so very appealing for many owners it must be too difficult to pas up.  After all, only 20 players on ATB history have accomplished the feat more than once, and only Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Mark McGwire have accomplished it more than Foxx's 8 times.

How about a little compromise?  Which of these two players would you prefer:

.254 / .345 / .506, 20 2B, 43 HR, .851 OPS
.274 / .350 / .539, 33 2B, 39 HR, .889 OPS

The first line is Jimmie Foxx circa 1932 via the 500 resims.  The second line is Jimmie Foxx circa 1933 in the .500 resims, and further, is a year that no owner has chosen in our 15 year history (or at least since we've kept records).  Incredibly, every owner on record has apparently chosen the wrong year for Double X.

If you must take Jimmie Foxx early choose 1933, giving up 4 home runs for the sake of 38 points in OPS.  It's the difference between the 12th best and 24th best batters in the game today.

Note:  Special thanks to Sean S who discovered all of this over the weekend.

No comments:

Post a Comment